Will Burnham win in Makerfield?

Don't count Reform out yet

“I’ve told you I’m voting for you- but if you knock on my door again I might fucking think twice.”

This story was told to me by a Labour activist in Makerfield today, through half a laugh and half-grimace. That harried voter won’t have been the only one afflicted by the descent of the Westminster circus. Another senior figure from the Burnham campaign told me that the Labour machine has knocked on every door in the constituency no fewer than six times over the last month. Factor in the other parties and you don’t so much have voter engagement as voter harassment.

I spent less than a day in Makerfield and it isn’t a constituency I know well. So I’m not going to trouble you with my personal, anecdotal reflections too much, save for the fact that my impression is of a set of electors highly cognisant of the significance of the moment. We’ve never had a by-election- in effect a form of prime ministerial primary- quite like this before and they know the responsibility it brings.

What I think is more worthwhile is offering a modest corrective to the Westminster consensus that has formed over the last week or so: that Burnham has it in the bag. That view sits uneasily with conversations I've had with activists and senior figures from across the parties, both today and over the last month.

Westminster's growing confidence in a Burnham victory is largely based on a clutch of (unreliable) constituency polls which show Burnham leads, the Reform candidate’s poor performance on Question Time and the probability of a modest but significant Restore vote which would split the right.

None of these arguments is entirely without merit. Constituency polling is notoriously unreliable, but it points in one direction. Kenyon has proved an underwhelming candidate, though not without strengths. And the Restore factor may yet prove decisive. Every Reform source I speak to mutters darkly that it will probably make the difference. Labour people are barely much happier. They are a beneficiary of the Farage/Lowe schism but they worry about what it portends: a flourishing force to Reform's right dragging its parent party in its wake.

It may well be that any one or all of these factors prove decisive. But they have obscured the more significant countervailing forces. Principally, Makerfield could scarely be more favourable terrain for Reform. It is in their top ten target seats, with a swing of barely 6% required to gain. Even in the Labour landslide of 2024, the party barely had a majority of 5000. "In the local elections, Reform swept the board in nearly every seat in the constituency. It is exactly the sort of place Labour has been losing for a decade: older, whiter, more car-dependent, less university-educated and increasingly alienated from the party culturally as much as politically. If there were a general election this Thursday, with Labour winning a small majority, the party would still expect to lose the seat. Even Burnham’s position as Manchester Mayor isn’t entirely uncomplicated. In Makerfield, Manchester can appear almost as much the distant, prosperous centre to rail against as Westminster itself. Given Labour's abysmal poll ratings, Labour aren't climbing a mountain here; they're trying to persuade it to move.

The real story of Makerfield is therefore the fact that Burnham is even competitive at all. That speaks to the power of his personal brand. In the posters and garden signs which now blanket the constituency (notably more Reform than Labour), you will not see a mention of Labour once- it is just “Vote Andy, For Us.” That omission is not accidental. He is running as a quasi-independent candidate and for good reason.

Speak to Labour activists and they will tell you just how concerned they are that the party brand itself is almost radioactive, more than is commonly appreciated. One told me: “you went out in the locals and it wasn’t just the told ‘I’m not voting for you’ but “fuck off out of my house right now- it’s fury.” Whether that is fair or not, or a reasonable verdict on the Satrmer premiership or not, it’s ubiquitous. Burnham is seeking to overcome it by posing as the- in effect- hostile takeover of the party. Reform have unwisely aided that impression by describing his candidacy as “a stepping stone”, something many Labour voters actively desire, such is their dislike of the incumbent Burnham would be stepping over to replace.

Reform have run a poor campaign and Labour a decent one. That, combined with Burnham’s unique candidacy may well be enough to get Labour over the line. But don’t be surprised if we wake up to a Reform win on Thursday. Labour fear that Reform are motivating non-voters, boosting turnout- voters about whom little is known and who may easily throw off both their targeting efforts and the pollsters’. As one Labour source put it to me after the locals: “for the first time Farage wasn’t just the beneficiary of people being pissed off with us, they were actively excited to go out and vote for him.” Whatever happens, the result will probably the pivotal moment of the parliament, with serious reorienting consequences for the left and right of British politics.

One other thing to bear in mind- if Burnham does triumph, Labour will never be able to run another campaign like it again. If he becomes Prime Minister, Labour's brand will become his brand. The outsider campaign will have worked. But it will also be over.