Most Americans are unaware of any such thing prior to moving here, where they hear about it. We’re deluding ourselves if we think it exists. You may as well ask UK politicians “Is the Special Relationship in the room with us right now…?”
I reckon we recruit the penguins from Heard Island and McDonald Islands to our negotiation team - they've managed to get the exact same deal. Then set them on getting us back into the EU free market.
Great article Lewis. Can’t ignore the devastating impact of #Brexit. It may not be the story but as you’ve pointed out, our weakness and lack of influence as a ‘sole trader’ will only get worse.
The delusions and lies that carried us Brits to Brexit are the same stuff that carried Trump back to the WH. Much of this was deliberate disinformation; it is rooted in the malignant politics of the alt-rights quest for power/money facilitated by billionaire owned media carelessly putting ad revenue ahead of truth.
But part of that stuff is also rising and entrenched inequality in the US and UK to which current economic orthodoxies seem to have no answer. Simply continuing to ease the transfer of wealth upwards isn’t going to solve anything.
Unless we can find an economics that reduces inequality our politics will continue to be infected with the delusions and lies that created Brexit and Trump. And possibly worse to come.
Trmps tariffs could help create more regionalised economies which in th long run is a good thing. Shorter supply lines, more goods consumed in the region they are produced creates a more sustainable form of consumption not reliant on price differences created by low wage costs and lower environmental standards. These tariffs, like Trumps attitude to defence are driving european and asian countries together, not his intention but a good outcome none the less. In this context brexit, or more specifically the current trading terms with the EU look worse than ever.
Excellent piece - really on the button. To consider Brexit a benefit is clearly preposterous and it’s great to hear it so well explained. And if a 10% tariff from a supposed friend is to celebrated, then we entering dark days indeed.
“As ever, Donald Trump proves the exception to the rule. What the Trump administration has done overnight is to (in effect) impose economic sanctions on their own country.”
So… cui bono?
Putin.
And maybe some in the know who have short positions.
You could make a case, Trump is trying to crash the economy deliberately, so he can tell all his mates to buy low, and then cancel the tariffs and watch them all make millions
It is tempting to suggest that UK diplomacy reasserting the effectively level balance of trade with the US, or further costing up to the Trump Administration, will result in some lowering of tariff levels towards the previous average of 2.5%.
However, my sense is that Trump and his cohort will experience greater damage from home. With his election predicated on lower cost of living for his working class base, Trump is not only already facing growing protests across the US, but is very likely to suffer serious political damage in the mid-term elections in 2026, just next year.
Trump is no fool - perhaps despite appearances - but he is concerned about his reputation. The combination political pressure internally and an electorate that sees a key election promise on lower living costs may just change his mind.
We just have to hope this realisation arises sooner rather than later.
I hope you are right Simon. I continue to hope that, eventually, there will be a tipping point around the lies and sheer dishonesty of Trump and his cronies. I think of it as an “emperor’s no clothes” moment when the media finds its appetite for the truth greater than its need for ad revenue.
Great article. However here’s an alternative, perhaps too optimistic scenario - that this retreat from global free trade will be short-lived. A sharp hike in US inflation, plus the Dems getting their act together results in mid-terms which are bad for Trump, and pressure from within GOP to negotiate bilateral reductions again quickly. Trump is transactional but unlike some of his acolytes he also has a pragmatic streak. So, yes, bad in the short term, but predictions of a return to the 1930s wildly overblown.
It is nice to think that American shareholders of British companies will also feel the effects of Trump's tariffs. One wonders how much the loss in value of American investments abroad contributes to the Wall Street losses. Maybe the UK can buy back the Crown Jewels?
Well said, Lewis, inescapable facts. You were a welcome voice on Newsnight last night btw.
The fact he doesn’t present on Newsnight anymore says more about the BBC, than it does Lewis.
On a happier note - we never need to hear the words ‘Special Relationship’ again.
Most Americans are unaware of any such thing prior to moving here, where they hear about it. We’re deluding ourselves if we think it exists. You may as well ask UK politicians “Is the Special Relationship in the room with us right now…?”
I reckon we recruit the penguins from Heard Island and McDonald Islands to our negotiation team - they've managed to get the exact same deal. Then set them on getting us back into the EU free market.
Great article Lewis. Can’t ignore the devastating impact of #Brexit. It may not be the story but as you’ve pointed out, our weakness and lack of influence as a ‘sole trader’ will only get worse.
I'm one of the "few".
The UK needs to rejoin the EU Single Market and Customs Union.
The delusions and lies that carried us Brits to Brexit are the same stuff that carried Trump back to the WH. Much of this was deliberate disinformation; it is rooted in the malignant politics of the alt-rights quest for power/money facilitated by billionaire owned media carelessly putting ad revenue ahead of truth.
But part of that stuff is also rising and entrenched inequality in the US and UK to which current economic orthodoxies seem to have no answer. Simply continuing to ease the transfer of wealth upwards isn’t going to solve anything.
Unless we can find an economics that reduces inequality our politics will continue to be infected with the delusions and lies that created Brexit and Trump. And possibly worse to come.
I hope Trumps “Tariff tantrum” is his Liz Truss moment when malevolent incompetence collides with stark and unerringly impactful reality.
Trmps tariffs could help create more regionalised economies which in th long run is a good thing. Shorter supply lines, more goods consumed in the region they are produced creates a more sustainable form of consumption not reliant on price differences created by low wage costs and lower environmental standards. These tariffs, like Trumps attitude to defence are driving european and asian countries together, not his intention but a good outcome none the less. In this context brexit, or more specifically the current trading terms with the EU look worse than ever.
In view of the depressed state of the economy 10% will feel more like 20% to the UK!
Excellent piece - really on the button. To consider Brexit a benefit is clearly preposterous and it’s great to hear it so well explained. And if a 10% tariff from a supposed friend is to celebrated, then we entering dark days indeed.
“As ever, Donald Trump proves the exception to the rule. What the Trump administration has done overnight is to (in effect) impose economic sanctions on their own country.”
So… cui bono?
Putin.
And maybe some in the know who have short positions.
Tariffs are Americas Brexit, Turkeys voting for a MAGA Christmas.
Super piece Lewis. The US is now the proud recipient of the second country Darwin Award, first given to the U.K. for Brexit.
You could make a case, Trump is trying to crash the economy deliberately, so he can tell all his mates to buy low, and then cancel the tariffs and watch them all make millions
It is tempting to suggest that UK diplomacy reasserting the effectively level balance of trade with the US, or further costing up to the Trump Administration, will result in some lowering of tariff levels towards the previous average of 2.5%.
However, my sense is that Trump and his cohort will experience greater damage from home. With his election predicated on lower cost of living for his working class base, Trump is not only already facing growing protests across the US, but is very likely to suffer serious political damage in the mid-term elections in 2026, just next year.
Trump is no fool - perhaps despite appearances - but he is concerned about his reputation. The combination political pressure internally and an electorate that sees a key election promise on lower living costs may just change his mind.
We just have to hope this realisation arises sooner rather than later.
I hope you are right Simon. I continue to hope that, eventually, there will be a tipping point around the lies and sheer dishonesty of Trump and his cronies. I think of it as an “emperor’s no clothes” moment when the media finds its appetite for the truth greater than its need for ad revenue.
You can start holding your breath for that the moment the Telegraph proclaims that Brexit was a disaster.
(In other words, not happening!)
Great article. However here’s an alternative, perhaps too optimistic scenario - that this retreat from global free trade will be short-lived. A sharp hike in US inflation, plus the Dems getting their act together results in mid-terms which are bad for Trump, and pressure from within GOP to negotiate bilateral reductions again quickly. Trump is transactional but unlike some of his acolytes he also has a pragmatic streak. So, yes, bad in the short term, but predictions of a return to the 1930s wildly overblown.
It is nice to think that American shareholders of British companies will also feel the effects of Trump's tariffs. One wonders how much the loss in value of American investments abroad contributes to the Wall Street losses. Maybe the UK can buy back the Crown Jewels?