Reform SQUEAK the Runcorn by-election

What does it mean?

Reform won the Runcorn by-election by just *six* votes- that’s the narrowest margin for any by-election since 1892. For once, I’m glad I set the alarm clock for 530am rather than staying up.

I’ll write a far more detailed analysis of the locals this weekend when we have the full set. As we’ve moved away from overnight counts in local authorities one of my pet bugbears in recent years has been the calcification of early narratives from commentators on the basis of incomplete data, so I won’t say much- but here are some quick thoughts this morning on this and the other results we have so far.

Make no mistake, however slender the margin, this is a significant win for Reform. The party was a distant second in this, one of Labour’s safest seats in 2024. The party, by comparison to the Labour machine, had very little data on voter ID and still squeaked out a win. Although it is growing rapidly and establishing roots in local government, Farage’s outfit remains a Potemkin party. With some irony, unlike UKIP or the Brexit Party it does not enjoy the perch of the European Parliament to provide a political base. As such it relies on the narrative power of strong opinion polling results to provide momentum and relevance, and is therefore unusually vulnerable to anything which breaks their sense of relentless rise. A win maintains their impetus. They will expand their parliamentary party back to five (with the estranged Rupert Lowe as an independent), with their first female MP- Sarah Pochin. The Runcorn result will spooks scores of Labour MPs. There will be questions about whether Starmer should have campaigned there and likewise MPs will mutter that if it weren't for winter fuel, they'd have won- that this result is a microcosm of the massive political cost of the Rachel Reeves decision, for paltry financial gain. The result also highlights the danger to Labour of losing votes on the party’s left flank: were it not for the 2000ish Green vote, the party would have won. Bottom line: this was the first by-election of this parliament, in a very safe Labour seat and Keir Starmer lost it. By contrast it took Tony Blair seven years before his government did the same.

In wider electoral terms, a majority of six for Reform or Labour matters not at all. But the result does do is confirm that Reform are taking their place as the main opposition force to Labour in many parts of the “Red Wall”- something UKIP never really achieved. Farage took to the airwaves after the result was declared excitedly saying that his party, not the Tories, are now the main opposition to Labour. In parts of the north and midlands, Wales too, that appears not to be hyperbole. Bear in mind the Tories had over 17000 votes in Runcorn as recently as 2019. Here, as in many other parts of the "Red Wall", where the Tories were highly competitive if not dominant within the last few years, they seem to be evaporating.

Some of the results also confirm that the Labour/Tory duopoly, which has held with occasional interruption since 1922, is under profound strain, with five or even six party politics being bound ever more tightly in the FPTP straightjacket.

Labour will be relieved to have (narrowly) clung on in a clutch of these mayoralties. The results so far are bad but not yet existential for the party- there have been many false dawns for Farage before. But again, the tightness of these races in rock solid Labour areas reaffirm that basic truth: Reform is achieving something its various predecessors did not: establish themselves in a comprehensive fashion in First Past the Post races in local government and do so without the adhesive of the European issue. More to come later this weekend.