Moving further left is the only response. They can’t out right-wing reform. And look at Green’s surge. Wealth tax, regulations for parasitic corporations, solid environmental policies, huge investment in education and health, policies such as basic income and proper maternity leave are the only policies that will save Labour. Being Reform-lite won’t work.
Generally agree but having read for weeks it's going to be utter disaster in Runcorn for Labour from all kinds of pundits, it doesn't seem as bad as that. By-elections are a strange political prism. My takeaway is the Tories have *much* to worry about. Labour simply needs to get stuff done that people start to feel and notice. Only that will see off Reform.
With a priority being stopping channel crossings and reducing the backlog. They have to get the 1-for-1 plan agreed with France. That’s quite a clever solution.
I campaigned for Labour in R&H for 10 days. On door after door in Runcorn itself long term Labour pensioner voters quoted the winter fuel allowance decision and closed their door.
This was predictable but what was a bit more surprising, when out in affluent Helsby on polling day several Labour supporters said they were voting Green as a protest. There was little visible Reform support in the west of the constituency and, as one voter told me, they believed “Labour will still get in anyway.” The well regarded Green councillor in Helsby was their by-election candidate and voters marked as Labour up til 10-14 days before polling day switched late-on to. Green protest vote.
By 11.30 on polling day morning Labour had mobilised 130+ canvassers. The Reform canvassers we saw had virtually no data and were struggling with A4 sheets of paper and clipboards rather than Labour’s doorstep app. Admittedly they ran an aggressive and misleading social media campaign but given the disparity in data and manpower it’s a deeply depressing outcome (not to mention the sunstroke and dehydration).
Question for you Lewis... Almost every academic analysis of populist and nativist electoral politics that I have encountered suggests that when the centre left (or centre right for that matter) concede ground and elide countering the premises of the arguments, they ultimately lose out. Why are senior Labour people so allergic to these conclusions, and why are they so committed to a strategy that has not borne fruit in France, Germany, the US, or anywhere else.
It appears that the Conservatives made next to no effort to campaign. If they had done so, Reform would almost certainly have come close behind Labour rather than fractionally ahead. The failure to campaign will in due course be judged a terrible and perhaps the fatal mistake in the disappearance of the Conservative Party as a potential party of government.
It looks as if the UK electorate is getting desperate, searching for a party that will change the country's fortunes by magic. Have the politicians still got enough institutions to blame for the decline? Or is it a case of "We have seen the enemy - and it is us!"?
A bit harsh on Britons eg there are still swathes of the French outside of Paris who back LePen and decry the loss of colonies and the impact of modern life on La France Profonde.National decline is either arrested by a self survival instinct to drop those institutions which don't serve to benefit the whole of society or a reversion to authoritarianism.You can look at Singapore or South Korea as models of renewal, or Hungary and now America with the strongleader syndrome.The one salient lesson is that scapegoating others doesn't work in the long run.
Just catching up on this one, but Lewis is one of the few UK political hacks to ID the GOTV issue for Reform. As such, the by-election result should be seen in even stronger terms for Labour and Number 10. Farage's party did it with lots of air coverage, but not a proper ground campaign. How unpopular is Starmer?
In a world where genuine Lib Dem’s exist - people voted for Trumps buddy. We are so done right now it’s just horrifying. Giving everything to snake oil charmer sales men is not a political strategy it’s falling for a CON !
Interesting that the Runcorn polls consistently had Reform in the mid 30s and Labour / Tories mid 20s - but the Tory vote collapsed. Is this an indicator that Tory voters may not all be Reform fodder?
I believe disaffected Tories stayed at home, but many more Labour voters did the same. I could take you to 3 or 4 large houses where residents registering protest votes for the Greens actually made the difference.
What makes Lewis think that Reform didn't have the data on voter makeup and distribution already when Pochin was Mayor in the Cheshire East region l.Does he think that defectors don't take data commissioned by their old party out of the door with them? A bit naive when Reform is self financed and can also buy its own data research and get free BBC coverage on every utterance that Tice ir Farage make.Not that it was hard not to foresee the backlash against the outgoing street brawler MP as well as the demographics of older retired ex Labour voters in the C1 socioeconomic stratum turning against Starmer's austerity measures.Immigration and anti woke themes helped spark the Reform campaign but ultimately it was a rejection of Labour by Labour stalwarts. Keir "gets it" this morning on the news but does he really and will there be any rapid changes in the priorities of the government ?
Runcorn turnout was 13% lower than in the GE. I guess that's to be expected, but even so I wonder whether Labour supporters stayed at home or if Reform were simply better at getting the vote out?
In my experience a number of disaffected Labour pensioners stayed at home, but most predictors working on the campaign expected a turnout nearer 40% than the eventual 46%. Without empirical evidence, I think that some habitual non voters came out for Farage. His personal vote was significant; I spoke to Reform voters who didn’t know the candidate’s name.
Moving further left is the only response. They can’t out right-wing reform. And look at Green’s surge. Wealth tax, regulations for parasitic corporations, solid environmental policies, huge investment in education and health, policies such as basic income and proper maternity leave are the only policies that will save Labour. Being Reform-lite won’t work.
A good plan! However to be effective it would have to be presented as a long term program which may scare away investors like the Americans.
Good 🤨
Generally agree but having read for weeks it's going to be utter disaster in Runcorn for Labour from all kinds of pundits, it doesn't seem as bad as that. By-elections are a strange political prism. My takeaway is the Tories have *much* to worry about. Labour simply needs to get stuff done that people start to feel and notice. Only that will see off Reform.
With a priority being stopping channel crossings and reducing the backlog. They have to get the 1-for-1 plan agreed with France. That’s quite a clever solution.
I campaigned for Labour in R&H for 10 days. On door after door in Runcorn itself long term Labour pensioner voters quoted the winter fuel allowance decision and closed their door.
This was predictable but what was a bit more surprising, when out in affluent Helsby on polling day several Labour supporters said they were voting Green as a protest. There was little visible Reform support in the west of the constituency and, as one voter told me, they believed “Labour will still get in anyway.” The well regarded Green councillor in Helsby was their by-election candidate and voters marked as Labour up til 10-14 days before polling day switched late-on to. Green protest vote.
By 11.30 on polling day morning Labour had mobilised 130+ canvassers. The Reform canvassers we saw had virtually no data and were struggling with A4 sheets of paper and clipboards rather than Labour’s doorstep app. Admittedly they ran an aggressive and misleading social media campaign but given the disparity in data and manpower it’s a deeply depressing outcome (not to mention the sunstroke and dehydration).
The time has come for the UK to follow Australia and bring in preferential voting. Even optional will better reflect what the voters would prefer.
Question for you Lewis... Almost every academic analysis of populist and nativist electoral politics that I have encountered suggests that when the centre left (or centre right for that matter) concede ground and elide countering the premises of the arguments, they ultimately lose out. Why are senior Labour people so allergic to these conclusions, and why are they so committed to a strategy that has not borne fruit in France, Germany, the US, or anywhere else.
This is a genuinely great point made !
It appears that the Conservatives made next to no effort to campaign. If they had done so, Reform would almost certainly have come close behind Labour rather than fractionally ahead. The failure to campaign will in due course be judged a terrible and perhaps the fatal mistake in the disappearance of the Conservative Party as a potential party of government.
It looks as if the UK electorate is getting desperate, searching for a party that will change the country's fortunes by magic. Have the politicians still got enough institutions to blame for the decline? Or is it a case of "We have seen the enemy - and it is us!"?
A bit harsh on Britons eg there are still swathes of the French outside of Paris who back LePen and decry the loss of colonies and the impact of modern life on La France Profonde.National decline is either arrested by a self survival instinct to drop those institutions which don't serve to benefit the whole of society or a reversion to authoritarianism.You can look at Singapore or South Korea as models of renewal, or Hungary and now America with the strongleader syndrome.The one salient lesson is that scapegoating others doesn't work in the long run.
Just catching up on this one, but Lewis is one of the few UK political hacks to ID the GOTV issue for Reform. As such, the by-election result should be seen in even stronger terms for Labour and Number 10. Farage's party did it with lots of air coverage, but not a proper ground campaign. How unpopular is Starmer?
In a world where genuine Lib Dem’s exist - people voted for Trumps buddy. We are so done right now it’s just horrifying. Giving everything to snake oil charmer sales men is not a political strategy it’s falling for a CON !
Interesting that the Runcorn polls consistently had Reform in the mid 30s and Labour / Tories mid 20s - but the Tory vote collapsed. Is this an indicator that Tory voters may not all be Reform fodder?
I believe disaffected Tories stayed at home, but many more Labour voters did the same. I could take you to 3 or 4 large houses where residents registering protest votes for the Greens actually made the difference.
I guess my point is Labour did better than expected, possibly because of tactical voting.
What makes Lewis think that Reform didn't have the data on voter makeup and distribution already when Pochin was Mayor in the Cheshire East region l.Does he think that defectors don't take data commissioned by their old party out of the door with them? A bit naive when Reform is self financed and can also buy its own data research and get free BBC coverage on every utterance that Tice ir Farage make.Not that it was hard not to foresee the backlash against the outgoing street brawler MP as well as the demographics of older retired ex Labour voters in the C1 socioeconomic stratum turning against Starmer's austerity measures.Immigration and anti woke themes helped spark the Reform campaign but ultimately it was a rejection of Labour by Labour stalwarts. Keir "gets it" this morning on the news but does he really and will there be any rapid changes in the priorities of the government ?
The Reform candidate had been expelled by the Tories and didn’t strike me as proficient in data.
Runcorn turnout was 13% lower than in the GE. I guess that's to be expected, but even so I wonder whether Labour supporters stayed at home or if Reform were simply better at getting the vote out?
In my experience a number of disaffected Labour pensioners stayed at home, but most predictors working on the campaign expected a turnout nearer 40% than the eventual 46%. Without empirical evidence, I think that some habitual non voters came out for Farage. His personal vote was significant; I spoke to Reform voters who didn’t know the candidate’s name.