The view that Europe should collectively fund the defence of Ukraine and rely much less on the US is a reasonable one. Europe needs to coordinate a much stronger and more effective defence of Ukraine. However, only the US can provide the nuclear deterrent. I can't even see it as realistic or even desireable that Europe starts stockpiling nuclear weapons in sufficient quantities to deter Russia. An alliance between the US and Russia is a frightening prospect for us all. Both Putin and Trump have threatened to use nuclear weapons to achieve their aims. If they no longer keep each other in check, the chance of nuclear war increases substantially.
A military met officer gave me one small bit of cheer this week. Apparently Russia would have a problem using its nuclear weapons against the Baltic states or any other residing close to the West of it because the prevailing winds would cause the fallout to land on Moscow and most of the most populated parts of Russia.
As Machiavellian as it feels, the narrative has to be how Trump has been completely manipulated by Putin. That he has been hopelessly outclassed and manoeuvred by the Russian President and is now a beta male.
That this is like one of those “Corporate Mergers” where one of the brands just never gets heard of again.
Hitting Trump in the pride is probably the only thing other than the wallet, and that can’t realistically be affected at the moment.
I thought along these lines too. But whatever humiliation Trump suffers will be spun into some sort of victory (in MAGA / X land) and will be lapped up. So even this this thread of hope is looking bare.
Good post though I'd quibble a bit about China. This idea of doing a "reverse Nixon" - enticing Russia away from China - is certainly popular among some Republicans, but I don't think it is Trump's goal. Trump's hostility to China is often overstated. He certainly wants to give China hell on commercial issues, but he has always cared much less about security-related aspects of the relationship (e.g. not committing to defending Taiwan, telling his aides not to mention it in his first admin, undermining U.S. security alliances in Asia, etc.) I think Trump's dream looks more like rehashing the Sino-American economic relationship with some glorious new deal and then having friendly relations with fellow autocrat Xi Jinping.
China leads the field in the use of technology to control its population. That must be something that interests Musk, and Trump by extension. Whatever nuance (I use that word advisedly) might be extended to Trump’s thinking about China, he is - whether deliberately or not - giving the Chinese the green light on invading Taiwan. By now someone must have whispered in Trump’s ear (the good one) what a great deal that would be for US chip manufacturers, especially as the rumour is that the Taiwanese will blow up their own chip factories as soon as China invades.
I very much agree that Trump has a warm spot for China (the kingdom of his big brother Xi.) MAGA is not such a natural fit but will easily adapt, especially after the spheres of influence are negotiated. Hatred of Taiwan is already in the pipeline: "They're killing our chip industry unfairly." Taiwan is a loathsome democracy.
I agree with the analysis of the piece. Wasn't all of it evident 6 months ago? I'm not claiming a crystal ball or special wisdom, I too am surprised by the intensity and speed of Trump's first month. Musk's wrecking crew was far outside my imagination. But the direction on foreign policy, with Trump forming a gang of mafia bosses (let's throw Modi & Kim Jon Un into the club of ruling horribles) has been telegraphed for years.
Zelensky the leader the USA desperately needs today to tell its people the truth where no Democrat or Republican would dare speak it's name but cower in fear.
Insightful and inormative as ever, Lewis. There are too few journalists prepared to stand up and tell the truth about what's going on so I very much appreciate your posts. This whole situation is completely nightmarish and I can't see how it's going to end well for any of us. If there's a silver lining, I hope it's that the UK will stop trying to "make Brexit work" and start moving towards rejoining the EU or at the very least, repairing some of the damage Brexsh!t has done to our relationship with our nearest neighbours. But the time for dithering is long past - decisive action is required fast.
Thank you, Lewis. I needed some time away from screaming headlines, and the pathetic capitulation of Johnson with his "Trump's statements are not meant to be historically accurate but to "shock Europeans into action". Pathetic human being.
You forgot to mention that Trump and cronies are using this to try to manufacture a blatant grab on Ukraine’s natural resources including lithium deposits. Trump has overstated the value in dollars of military support to Ukraine about five-fold (in fact total European support to Ukraine is much higher in financial terms) and retrospectively declare it a ‘loan’. Disagree with him, and he makes totally slanderous personal attacks.
Why has there been no counter plan to all of this in the making for the two terms gone by one in which the dems were in power? They've done everything in plain sight and the disbelief and ridicule has blinded both the dems and the EU where they're not confused, befuddled and pathetic, when really they should be united and formative in their counter plans against this disease and cancer. If nothing happens in opposition for another month than hope erodes further. An action and movement needs to start rolling sooner rather than later.
Holy moly. The last 16 mins needs to be on posters and taken as the dems campaign to rise up. What is wrong with the democratic leadership? You have failed the once great nation of the USA if no one rises to coordinate and lead. Your silence is deafening.
Calls to action from his speech:
- going along to get along with trump doesn't work
- thinking quid pro quo doesn't work
- the fact that some politicians boo these points are traitors and turn a blind eye to atrocities. Those atrocities will be on par at some stage with hate we've only read about in the history books or seen at museums. Wake up and act. Join together. Why leadership is important.
- the spectre of nazism in a different wrapper is rising as a seed. The root begins at the foundation. Hate, distrust and blame.
- to grow as a dictatorship. Didn't derive overnight. It started with every day citizens made about inflation and issues impacting them personally. Looking for someone to blame.
- a foreboding dread is happening in the US. The authoritarian playbook is laid bare here. They point to a group of people who dont look like you and tell you to blame them for your problems.
- this should be the dems and not just dems but talk to people who care about the constitution and democracy...this should be the angle: What Comes Next? Why is this so hard to build the momentum? What are they waiting for?
- once this administration has ostracised your neighbours, betrayed our friends, minorities, immigrants, LGBTQ, women...blame them for your problems. and when their problems are still there, What Comes Next?
- history has shown us so much, we MUST learn from it.
- if we don't want to repeat history we'd better be strong enough, brave enough, to learn from it and do something about it.
- our oath should be to the constitution and not to a self imposed and appointed "king"
- if you think this is an overreaction, the alarm too soon, it took the nazis 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours and 40 mins to dismantle a constitution.
- every good person needs to be ready to stop it from raging out of control.
- What Comes Next? You or them?
- tyranny requires your fear, silence and compliance. Democracy requires your courage. Gather your justice and humanity. Do not allow the tragic spirit of despair overcome us. When your country needs you the most!
Worth listening to ‘Sergei and the Westminster Spy Ring’ podcast for more insight along these lines from the likes of Dominic Grieve, Edward Lucas, Sergei Christo and Christopher Steele
"A Trump cipher from the America First Institute claimed on Newsnight on Tuesday that more people are locked up in the UK for freedom of speech violations than Russia."
Has anybody fact-checked this? Are there statistics as to how many people are currently imprisoned in the UK for "hate speech" offences (e.g. inciting hatred under the Public Order Act, or "grossly offensive" social media posts under the Communications Act)?
I’m hearing Jon Sopel’s words from Monday night’s gig in B’ham. Rubio will be the 1st to leave this cabinet of degenerates & misfits, either that is a push or a ‘principled’ walk.
Remember when Zelensky refused to do Trump‘s bidding to fabricate dirt on Joe Biden?
That feeling of needing to get back at Zelensky may also be part of motivation for Trump.
The view that Europe should collectively fund the defence of Ukraine and rely much less on the US is a reasonable one. Europe needs to coordinate a much stronger and more effective defence of Ukraine. However, only the US can provide the nuclear deterrent. I can't even see it as realistic or even desireable that Europe starts stockpiling nuclear weapons in sufficient quantities to deter Russia. An alliance between the US and Russia is a frightening prospect for us all. Both Putin and Trump have threatened to use nuclear weapons to achieve their aims. If they no longer keep each other in check, the chance of nuclear war increases substantially.
A military met officer gave me one small bit of cheer this week. Apparently Russia would have a problem using its nuclear weapons against the Baltic states or any other residing close to the West of it because the prevailing winds would cause the fallout to land on Moscow and most of the most populated parts of Russia.
As Machiavellian as it feels, the narrative has to be how Trump has been completely manipulated by Putin. That he has been hopelessly outclassed and manoeuvred by the Russian President and is now a beta male.
That this is like one of those “Corporate Mergers” where one of the brands just never gets heard of again.
Hitting Trump in the pride is probably the only thing other than the wallet, and that can’t realistically be affected at the moment.
I thought along these lines too. But whatever humiliation Trump suffers will be spun into some sort of victory (in MAGA / X land) and will be lapped up. So even this this thread of hope is looking bare.
Good post though I'd quibble a bit about China. This idea of doing a "reverse Nixon" - enticing Russia away from China - is certainly popular among some Republicans, but I don't think it is Trump's goal. Trump's hostility to China is often overstated. He certainly wants to give China hell on commercial issues, but he has always cared much less about security-related aspects of the relationship (e.g. not committing to defending Taiwan, telling his aides not to mention it in his first admin, undermining U.S. security alliances in Asia, etc.) I think Trump's dream looks more like rehashing the Sino-American economic relationship with some glorious new deal and then having friendly relations with fellow autocrat Xi Jinping.
China leads the field in the use of technology to control its population. That must be something that interests Musk, and Trump by extension. Whatever nuance (I use that word advisedly) might be extended to Trump’s thinking about China, he is - whether deliberately or not - giving the Chinese the green light on invading Taiwan. By now someone must have whispered in Trump’s ear (the good one) what a great deal that would be for US chip manufacturers, especially as the rumour is that the Taiwanese will blow up their own chip factories as soon as China invades.
I very much agree that Trump has a warm spot for China (the kingdom of his big brother Xi.) MAGA is not such a natural fit but will easily adapt, especially after the spheres of influence are negotiated. Hatred of Taiwan is already in the pipeline: "They're killing our chip industry unfairly." Taiwan is a loathsome democracy.
I agree with the analysis of the piece. Wasn't all of it evident 6 months ago? I'm not claiming a crystal ball or special wisdom, I too am surprised by the intensity and speed of Trump's first month. Musk's wrecking crew was far outside my imagination. But the direction on foreign policy, with Trump forming a gang of mafia bosses (let's throw Modi & Kim Jon Un into the club of ruling horribles) has been telegraphed for years.
Zelensky the leader the USA desperately needs today to tell its people the truth where no Democrat or Republican would dare speak it's name but cower in fear.
Insightful and inormative as ever, Lewis. There are too few journalists prepared to stand up and tell the truth about what's going on so I very much appreciate your posts. This whole situation is completely nightmarish and I can't see how it's going to end well for any of us. If there's a silver lining, I hope it's that the UK will stop trying to "make Brexit work" and start moving towards rejoining the EU or at the very least, repairing some of the damage Brexsh!t has done to our relationship with our nearest neighbours. But the time for dithering is long past - decisive action is required fast.
Thank goodness you are here - writing these so perceptive commentaries- however depressing it all is.
Thank you, Lewis. I needed some time away from screaming headlines, and the pathetic capitulation of Johnson with his "Trump's statements are not meant to be historically accurate but to "shock Europeans into action". Pathetic human being.
You forgot to mention that Trump and cronies are using this to try to manufacture a blatant grab on Ukraine’s natural resources including lithium deposits. Trump has overstated the value in dollars of military support to Ukraine about five-fold (in fact total European support to Ukraine is much higher in financial terms) and retrospectively declare it a ‘loan’. Disagree with him, and he makes totally slanderous personal attacks.
Why has there been no counter plan to all of this in the making for the two terms gone by one in which the dems were in power? They've done everything in plain sight and the disbelief and ridicule has blinded both the dems and the EU where they're not confused, befuddled and pathetic, when really they should be united and formative in their counter plans against this disease and cancer. If nothing happens in opposition for another month than hope erodes further. An action and movement needs to start rolling sooner rather than later.
https://youtu.be/KBOJhU2pLMo?si=Ot1n2vfyYMU518sS
Holy moly. The last 16 mins needs to be on posters and taken as the dems campaign to rise up. What is wrong with the democratic leadership? You have failed the once great nation of the USA if no one rises to coordinate and lead. Your silence is deafening.
Calls to action from his speech:
- going along to get along with trump doesn't work
- thinking quid pro quo doesn't work
- the fact that some politicians boo these points are traitors and turn a blind eye to atrocities. Those atrocities will be on par at some stage with hate we've only read about in the history books or seen at museums. Wake up and act. Join together. Why leadership is important.
- the spectre of nazism in a different wrapper is rising as a seed. The root begins at the foundation. Hate, distrust and blame.
- to grow as a dictatorship. Didn't derive overnight. It started with every day citizens made about inflation and issues impacting them personally. Looking for someone to blame.
- a foreboding dread is happening in the US. The authoritarian playbook is laid bare here. They point to a group of people who dont look like you and tell you to blame them for your problems.
- this should be the dems and not just dems but talk to people who care about the constitution and democracy...this should be the angle: What Comes Next? Why is this so hard to build the momentum? What are they waiting for?
- once this administration has ostracised your neighbours, betrayed our friends, minorities, immigrants, LGBTQ, women...blame them for your problems. and when their problems are still there, What Comes Next?
- history has shown us so much, we MUST learn from it.
- if we don't want to repeat history we'd better be strong enough, brave enough, to learn from it and do something about it.
- our oath should be to the constitution and not to a self imposed and appointed "king"
- if you think this is an overreaction, the alarm too soon, it took the nazis 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours and 40 mins to dismantle a constitution.
- every good person needs to be ready to stop it from raging out of control.
- What Comes Next? You or them?
- tyranny requires your fear, silence and compliance. Democracy requires your courage. Gather your justice and humanity. Do not allow the tragic spirit of despair overcome us. When your country needs you the most!
Do you think there's anything in the Steele Dossier that should be believed as regards his relationship with Putin/Russia?
Worth listening to ‘Sergei and the Westminster Spy Ring’ podcast for more insight along these lines from the likes of Dominic Grieve, Edward Lucas, Sergei Christo and Christopher Steele
The astute observations in '2. Ideational' are key in this. Trump and co. see a kindred spirit in Putin and the fervent nationalism.
It's becoming like a gang of ultra-macho boot boys, sneering at liberal democratic leaders.
However sickening it feels, one would hope that they don't really have the support of the populace of their respective nations.
The recent denigration of Zelensky and Europe in general may be swallowed whole by enough US citizens to allow this new posturing though.
The values they accuse Europe of not upholding probably amount to colonialism. Or white supremacy. There's the ugly hard centre once you bite in.
America now has its own mad (wannabe) emperor. Third term? Life President. A new constitution for the Semiquincentennial? Just 20 days after his 80th.
What next for Canada and Greenland?
I think Byline Times set out a credible scenario for Canada, Greenland and Panama here:
https://open.substack.com/pub/bylinesupplement/p/trump-isnt-joking-about-liebensraum?r=1qy2w6&utm_medium=ios
That first paragraph says all there is to be said
"A Trump cipher from the America First Institute claimed on Newsnight on Tuesday that more people are locked up in the UK for freedom of speech violations than Russia."
Has anybody fact-checked this? Are there statistics as to how many people are currently imprisoned in the UK for "hate speech" offences (e.g. inciting hatred under the Public Order Act, or "grossly offensive" social media posts under the Communications Act)?
Or for thinking about an environmental protest?
So are we now part of George Bush’s axis of evil? Asking for a Canadian friend.
I’m hearing Jon Sopel’s words from Monday night’s gig in B’ham. Rubio will be the 1st to leave this cabinet of degenerates & misfits, either that is a push or a ‘principled’ walk.